India is popular for its rice cultivation all over the world. India is the largest rice exporter with its market share of 28.9% from world’s output (In 2016). It has generated the export value of 5315.535 Million USD in 2016. In the list of rice exporting countries, India is followed by Thailand which stood second in the list. India is exporting rice in more than 150 countries across the world. Rice export by India in three categories which are Basmati, Non-Basmati and others. India has registered sales of 226.61 Million USD from Basmati rice export under HS code 10063020 during March 2017 while the exported value of non-basmati rice is 93.52 Million USD.

The Indian government has kept a highly competitive price for the exported rice to the importing countries to boost the export of rice from India.

MY2017/18 rice production is expected to recover to historical levels with forecasted production of approximately 19.5 million metric tons. This would be a 5 percent increase from MY2016/17 as reservoirs are well above critically low levels that hindered MY2016/2017 rice production. The government is likely to sell all of the remaining 2.9 million metric tons of food-quality rice stocks in 2017 which will help maintain Thai rice export volumes. The sale of non-food quality government rice stocks is anticipated to increase the use of broken rice by the feed and ethanol industries in 2017 and 2018. Government stocks are expected to decline to 1-2 million metric tons by the end of MY2017/2018.

Post revised the estimate for total rice production for MY 2016/2017 from 44.58 million tons to 44.75 million tons of paddy rice, or approximately 27.97 million tons of milled rice equivalent. This estimate is slightly higher than USDA’s official number for the same marketing year, and it is about 387,000 tons of milled rice increase compared to Post’s estimate for MY 2015/2016 production, due to overall good weather conditions, especially ample water supply. However, MARD reports that excessive rain in the early dry season has made it difficult for many farmers to reach peak production. As a result, the production of the Spring crop in the Mekong River Delta (MRD) decreased. The Spring crop production in the whole country was down -about 150,000 tons of paddy or 94,000 tons of milled rice less compared to the MY 2015/2016 Spring crop. The increased production for MY 2016/2017 comes from better than expected production of the Autumn crop, mainly increase in yield due to favorable conditions. Post also revised the forecast for MY 2017/2018 rice production from 44.96 million tons to 45.54 million tons with expected slight increase in area of the first crop, or also called the Spring crop, (about the same area of MY 2016/2017) and higher yield of the second crop, or Autumn crop (5.8 tons per hectare compared to 5.65 tons per hectare from the last forecast) in MY 2016/2017).

Exports According to the Vietnamese Food Association (VFA), Vietnam MY 2016/2017 (January-May 2016) exports reached about 2.3 million tons of milled rice, with the CIF value at $1.1 billion. In the first 5 months of MY 2016/2017, China imported about 1.1 million tons, compared to 786,000 tons of milled rice during the same period of MY 2015/2016. The Philippines’ imports also increased from 193,000 tons in the first 5 months of MY 2015/2016 to 343,000 tons in the same period of MY 2016/2017. The export volumes of rice to these two countries comprise more than 50 percent of Vietnam’s total rice export for the first 5 months of MY 2016/2017. Post estimates Vietnam MY 2016/2017 rice export volume at 5.6 million tons and 6.0 million tons for MY 2017/2018 export forecast.